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Adaptive Biotechnologies Corp (ADPT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered a headline beat: revenue $93.973M and GAAP diluted EPS $0.06 vs S&P Global consensus of $64.6M and -$0.14 EPS; the beat was largely driven by $33.7M non‑cash Immune Medicine revenue recognized upon termination of the Genentech agreement, alongside strong MRD growth and $6.5M pharma milestones ; estimates marked with * and sourced from S&P Global.*
  • MRD revenue rose 52% YoY to $56.788M; clonoSEQ volumes increased 38% YoY to 27,111; sequencing gross margin expanded to 66% with NovaSeq X Plus efficiencies, and the MRD segment achieved positive Adjusted EBITDA of $7.0M .
  • Guidance was raised: MRD revenue to $202–$207M (prior $190–$200M); total OpEx tightened to $335–$340M (prior $335–$345M); cash burn narrowed to $45–$50M (prior $45–$55M); MRD milestone revenue lifted to $18–$19M, and expected FY tests to ~104,000 .
  • Strategic execution accelerated: EMR integrations (Epic, Flatiron) and payer wins lifted ASP (> $1,340), broadened community penetration (31% of volume), and supported serial testing workflows; NCCN guideline updates in CLL and DLBCL strengthened the clinical case for MRD adoption .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • MRD reached profitability and cash flow positivity; segment Adjusted EBITDA was $7.0M, reflecting operational leverage and improved pricing, with sequencing gross margin at 66% driven by NovaSeq X Plus efficiencies . “The MRD business became cash flow positive, a significant achievement that underscores the strength and scalability of our model.” — CEO Chad Robins .
  • Volume and ASP momentum: clonoSEQ delivered 27,111 tests (+38% YoY), with U.S. ASP > $1,340 (+28% YoY), supported by payer contracting and EMR-driven serial testing options .
  • Policy tailwinds: NCCN added MRD assessment in lymphoma and specified serial MRD in CLL every 3–6 months, bolstering use cases and aiding clinician adoption in community settings .

What Went Wrong

  • Headline revenue and EBITDA benefited from $33.7M non-cash Genentech amortization; excluding this, Q3 Adjusted EBITDA was a loss of $5.8M and total company net loss was $24.2M, spotlighting base-business profitability still in transition .
  • Immune Medicine ex‑Genentech performed below prior-year levels ($3.4M vs $5.5M), and segment adjusted EBITDA (ex‑Genentech) remained a deficit (~$10M per CFO remarks), indicating ongoing investment needs and slower revenue traction in the segment .
  • Interest expense ($3.0M) exceeded interest income ($2.2M); total OpEx rose 6% YoY to $83.7M as SG&A and cost of revenue scaled with volume and integration efforts, moderating bottom-line leverage .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$46.435 $52.443 $58.879 $93.973
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)-$0.22 -$0.20 -$0.17 $0.06
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$14.300 -$12.748 -$7.196 $27.953

Margins (company and sequencing):

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025
Sequencing Gross Margin (%)64% 66%
Total Company Gross Margin (%) (ex-Genentech revenue)—70%

Segment revenue and profitability:

SegmentQ3 2024 Revenue ($M)Q2 2025 Revenue ($M)Q3 2025 Revenue ($M)Q3 2025 Adjusted EBITDA ($M)
MRD$37.470 $49.938 $56.788 $6.965
Immune Medicine$8.965 $8.941 $37.185 (incl. $33.7M Genentech) $23.706

Key performance indicators:

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
clonoSEQ Test Volume (Units)23,117 25,321 27,111
U.S. clonoSEQ ASP ($/test)—>$1,290 >$1,340
Blood-Based Share of MRD Volume (%)—44% 45%
Ordering HCPs (count)—>3,700 >4,100
Unique Patients Tested (count)—>18,000 >19,400
MRD Pharma Backlog ($M)—~$218 >$200
MRD Milestone Revenue ($M)$4.5 $5.5 $6.5

Estimate comparison (S&P Global):

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$64,647,710*$93,973,000
Primary EPS ($)-$0.13857*$0.06
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)7* / 7*—

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
MRD Revenue ($M)FY 2025$190–$200 $202–$207 Raised
Total Company Operating Expenses incl. CoR ($M)FY 2025$335–$345 $335–$340 Lowered (tightened)
Total Company Cash Burn ($M)FY 2025$45–$55 $45–$50 Lowered (tightened)
MRD Milestone Revenue ($M)FY 2025$14–$15 $18–$19 Raised
clonoSEQ Tests (Units)FY 2025~35% YoY growth target ~104,000 tests Raised volume outlook

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
EMR Integrations (Epic, Flatiron)Epic live at 40 sites; Flatiron integration launched July 1 across 113 account groups; integrated sites grow ~2x vs non-integrated; serial testing feature introduced 11 additional integrations; 40% of commercial tests from integrated accounts; Flatiron serial testing in use; integrated accounts +9% QoQ vs +6% non-integrated Strengthening adoption and workflow-driven volume lift
Blood-Based Testing MixRising blood-based share (44% in Q2); myeloma blood utilization up; DLBCL/MCL contributions increase Blood-based reached 45% overall; ALL 37%, myeloma 24% in blood Continued shift to blood-based sampling
ASP Trajectory & Payer CoverageASP >$1,290; national/regional payer contracting momentum; Medicare mix to newer price point ASP >$1,340; first large commercial DLBCL coverage; two major CLL payers; continued national price increases implementation Upward ASP momentum with broader coverage
NovaSeq X Plus Cost EfficienciesImplementation begins Q2; contributing to sequencing margin improvement +2pp to MRD sequencing gross margin; 66% sequencing margin; expected 5–8pp post-launch uplift Margin expansion on scaling
NCCN Guidelines & Clinical UtilityMyeloma ID at diagnosis strengthened; data (MIDUS, VENETiStop) builds utility NCCN includes MRD in lymphoma; CLL serial MRD every 3–6 months; reinforces NGS over flow Regulatory/clinical tailwinds increase
MRD Pharma Endpoints & BacklogBacklog ~$218M; CHMP supports MRD as early endpoint in myeloma; primary endpoint studies rising Backlog >$200M; endpoint qualification underway in CLL/DLBCL; 2025 CLL bookings >2x YoY Expanding endpoint acceptance beyond myeloma
Community Penetration & Sales CoverageCommunity volume growing; ~65 reps, half focused on community 31% of clonoSEQ volume from community; Flatiron integration accelerating; stable sales footprint Deeper penetration with scalable model
Competition in DLBCLEmerging competitors noted; clonoSEQ holds clinical/coverage lead >7,000 DLBCL tests in last 12 months; >900 HCPs; expanding commercial coverage Competitive moat remains durable

Management Commentary

  • “MRD revenue grew 52% year-over-year, driven by robust increases in clinical volume and ASP… With clonoSEQ now running on the NovaSeq X Plus, we’re realizing meaningful cost efficiencies and expanding gross margins.” — CEO Chad Robins .
  • “U.S. ASP grew 28% to over $1,340… Sequencing gross margin… was 66%, up from 56% a year ago… driven by… higher volumes, stronger pricing… and NovaSeq X Plus implementation.” — CFO Kyle Piskel .
  • “The serial testing option is available to our Flatiron integrated accounts… cadence from one, three, six, or 12 months… we are confident… we will get incremental test growth from that offering.” — CCO Susan Bobulsky .
  • “We are raising our full-year MRD revenue guidance to a range of $202–$207 million… expect MRD milestone revenue between $18 million and $19 million… expect to deliver ~104,000 tests for the year.” — CFO Kyle Piskel .

Q&A Highlights

  • Backlog conversion: ~$200M+ MRD pharma backlog typically recognized over 5–7 years; momentum expected to continue with endpoint expansion into CLL/DLBCL .
  • ASP outlook: With Q3 exit rate (> $1,340) and new coverage, management expects meaningful ASP growth in 2026 toward $1,700–$1,800 long-range target .
  • EMR serial testing: OncoEMR offers selectable serial cadence (1/3/6/12 months); clinic workflows will pull orders through, driving per-patient testing frequency .
  • Seasonality: Q4 holiday impact considered in guidance; sequential growth may moderate near-term, with strong trajectory into 2026 .
  • DLBCL growth and competition: DLBCL mix rose to ~9%; despite entrants, clonoSEQ retains leadership via experience, coverage, and universal lymphoid panel .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 results materially beat Wall Street consensus: revenue $93.973M vs $64.64771M*, GAAP EPS $0.06 vs -$0.13857*; 7 estimates for each metric.* The beat is partly non-cash due to Genentech amortization ($33.7M) but underlying MRD also outperformed with 52% YoY revenue growth and milestones .
  • Implications: Consensus should adjust for non-cash Immune Medicine revenue impact, higher MRD milestones ($18–$19M for FY), stronger ASP trajectory, and updated test volume (~104,000) .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Beat and raise quarter: Expect near-term positive sentiment, tempered by the non-cash nature of a material revenue component; focus on MRD base business strength (volumes, ASP, margin expansion) .
  • ASP and payer momentum: Continued contracting/coverage wins (DLBCL, CLL) and EMR integrations support sustained ASP and volume growth—key drivers of 2026 upside .
  • Margin trajectory: NovaSeq X Plus integration and lab leverage underpin sequencing margin expansion (66% in Q3), enhancing unit economics as volume scales .
  • Pharma optionality: Growing endpoint acceptance beyond myeloma and doubled CLL bookings build multi-year revenue visibility; backlog >$200M offers durability .
  • Watch seasonality and ex‑Genentech base metrics: Q4 holiday seasonality may temper sequential trends; track ex‑Genentech Adjusted EBITDA and net loss to gauge core profitability progress .
  • Execution in community: Serial testing via OncoEMR and Epic order sets are structural tailwinds that should lift tests per patient and reduce churn risk .
  • Guidance credibility: Raised MRD revenue, milestones, and tightened OpEx and cash burn ranges reflect discipline; monitoring delivery against ~104,000 tests will be key .